Tecopa, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

679
FXUS65 KVEF 181806 CCA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1106 AM PDT Wed Jun 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for today and Thursday with
  triple digit highs and warm overnight low temperatures.

* Increasing winds are expected Thursday through Saturday, with the
  best chance for widespread wind impacts being Saturday. Dangerous
  fire weather conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday as
  gusty winds and afternoon humidities in the single digits develop
  each afternoon. Winds diminish on Sunday and remain lower into
  early next week.

* Temperatures will cool off Sunday into early next week, bringing
  some relief from the extreme heat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Next Wednesday

Not much change in the temperature forecast from the previous
package as high pressure builds into the region over the next 48
hours. Temperatures will warm in response, with high temperatures
some 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals today and Thursday. This
combined with warm overnight lows will promote a period of moderate
to  major Heat Risk, with the highest heat risk in desert valleys
where an Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for today and Thursday.
Today will be warmer than Thursday, however both days with feature
potentially dangerous heat.

Late Thursday through Saturday, an upper level trough will drop into
the region, increasing the pressure gradient and thus increasing the
winds. With no precipitation and afternoon humidities dropping into
the single digits each day combined with these winds- prolonged
dangerous fire conditions and increased fire spread potential will
develop. On Thursday, HREF shows high probabilities (80% or more)
for relative humidities below 15% and wind speeds over 20 mph across
southern Nevada and western Arizona most of the afternoon. Friday
and Saturday will have similar or worse conditions to Thursday, also
spreading into California. Coordination with fire partners and
decisions on Red Flag Warnings will occur today to ensure consistent
messaging and to highlight where the highest fire danger will exist
based on fuels. Outside of fire danger, impactful wind gusts over 40
MPH will be possible at times. The best chance for wind related
impacts is on Saturday when NBM has high probabilities for wind gusts
over 40 MPH across the Western Mojave Desert through southern Nevada
and northern Mohave County. Impactful winds may start as early as
Friday afternoon, especially in San Bernardino County, and
marginally impactful winds are possible in southern Nevada on
Thursday as a weak disturbance moves through the mean flow. Will
analyze the latest hi-res model and ensemble data that becomes
available today to assess wind impact potential through the first
part of the weekend

As the upper trough settles into the Southwest US this weekend,
falling heights will yield a stretch of below normal temperatures
for late June. As opposed to our normal low 100s, ensemble analysis
points to highs in the 90s Sunday and Monday, perhaps even into
Tuesday. The result will be a rather pleasant start to the last week
of June by our summer standards. Winds will also decrease as the
upper level low sets up over the region with the probability for
impactful winds dropping to 20% or less by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
winds will be light and northeasterly through early afternoon though
intermittent higher gusts will be possible during peak heating, with
winds favoring a southeasterly direction through early evening when
diurnal winds resume. Temperatures today will exceed 100F between
19Z-05Z, peaking at 109F around 23Z-01Z. VFR conditions with clear
skies prevail.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...VFR conditions and clear
skies will continue through Thursday. Winds will largely follow
typical diurnal patterns, and while speeds are expected to be 10KT
or less across the area, intermittent thermally-induced gusts are
possible this afternoon during peak heating. The exception will be
across the Western Mojave Desert, where westerly winds become light
and variable this afternoon, returning to the west and increasing to
12-15KT after sunset. Winds will increase from the south on Thursday
during the late morning hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Berc

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